“This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it.”
Ralph Waldo Emerson
5.1. The Commission’s terms of reference are future-focused. The Commission was asked to conceptualise the changes which may occur in the region over the next 100 years, and to recommend local government arrangements that will be able to position Auckland positively for the future.
5.2. Trying to see into the future is always a difficult task. Nonetheless, it is regularly attempted. Many Auckland councils, including the Auckland Regional Council (“ARC”), have developed long-term strategies and plans for their areas, sometimes 50 years in advance.1 Various Government departments and agencies, as well as economists, academics, and commentators, work on forecasts for New Zealand’s population, land use, economy, and social issues.
5.3. Often the study of the future involves studying the past to track patterns and leaps of change. The challenge for any “futurist” is predicting some of the quantum leaps in technology and events that can significantly and irrevocably change behaviours, knowledge, and abilities of groups, industries, and countries, if not the world. However, one commentator remarked that, even if the predictions or forecasts are not right,
Success in forecasting is about useful thinking, rather than being right. Imagining these futures allows us to develop consensus over what we want, collectively, and how best to get there.2
5.4. The Commission asked Rod Oram, a well-known journalist and commentator, to provide some insights into what the future might hold. He acknowledges there are a number of possibilities for Auckland, some grim, others “blue sky” optimistic. His scenario for Auckland in 50 years’ time is one based on positive change and the fulfilment of opportunities.3 This chapter draws on Oram’s research and his scenario, as well as other sources such as the Millennium Project commissioned by the United Nations, Landcare Research, Statistics New Zealand, and long-term work done by councils, including the ARC. The Commission has also drawn on comments it sought on Oram’s paper from Colin James (political journalist and managing director of the forecasting panel, the Hugo Group) and Paul Callaghan (well-known scientist who has lectured on New Zealand’s future), as well as material written by economist and research fellow Brian Easton.
5.5. While speculative, Oram’s scenario and the comments received on it, can help planning for the future by providing a framework for identifying key challenges to be addressed and outcomes that need to be achieved in Auckland over the next five decades.
5.6. Arising out of this analysis, the Commission has identified the following five key challenges for Auckland in the next 10–20 years:
5.7. Desired outcomes for the next 50 years include
5.8. These outcomes are reflected in the vision the Commission has defined for Auckland, and the governance arrangements it is recommending. The Commission notes, however, that a future-based strategy for Auckland ideally needs to be part of a national strategy, one that engages all parts and sectors of the country.4
5.9. Auckland’s future is shaped by its past. In the past 50 years, there have been missed opportunities. Decisions made by civic leaders throughout the 19th and 20th centuries have determined Auckland’s flawed profile. Auckland will never have the blocks of beautiful 19th century buildings with cobbled walkways of many European cities, or the underground mass transit systems of London and New York. But decisions made in the next months, years, and decades will affect the growth, sustainability, and appeal of New Zealand’s major city.
5.10. Ten years ago, various Government departments and the Society of Local Government Managers developed a joint document called “Scenarios for Local Government to 2010” which had three potential scenarios for local government.5 The three scenarios were called “Muddling Along: Possum in the glare”, “Lean and Competitive: Shark roaming alone”, and “Governance for Citizens: Nga Kahikatea reaching new heights”. The Commission notes that the scenario that most accurately predicted the state of local government in Auckland is the first: “Muddling Along”. This scenario has the region moving into the Knowledge Age in an evolutionary, not revolutionary, way, with several councils which have a wide variation in performance. Essentially, not much has changed since the scenario document was developed. The ideal scenario would have been the third one, “Governance for Citizens”, which focused on social change, local solutions to local problems, and a shared sense of purpose.
5.11. Looking 50 years ahead to see a future for Auckland is an exercise in possibilities, one that has inevitable pitfalls. There are few people who, 50 years ago in 1959 or 1960, could have foreseen the city and society we have now. In Chapter 2, “Auckland Now”, the Commission describes what Auckland looks like. In 1960, most women were at home raising children. Men usually stayed in the same job or profession for their entire working life. Few Europeans knew about Māori culture and history, and race relations seemed friendly and peaceful. Polynesians composed 1% of Auckland’s population; Asians less than 1%.6 Overseas travel was a once-in-a-lifetime experience for the lucky few, pubs closed at 6 pm, all typewriters were manual, television was a luxury, most restaurants only served basic English food, and rural families accepted shared telephone lines, where anyone could hear a conversation. Fifty years on, most young people stay in jobs for only two to five years, Treaty of Waitangi issues are an accepted part of the political landscape, Auckland now has the biggest Polynesian population of any city in the world, the Asian population is 19% and growing, it is normal for some Kiwis to fly to Sydney for the weekend or Fiji for a week, laptops and broadband are commonplace, hybrid cars are on the road, and almost everyone has a cellphone.
5.12. The rate of change is exponential (see Figure 5.1). Technology developed in the past two decades has significantly altered our lives. It is not yet known which technologies will be developed in the next 10, let alone 50, years, or the jobs they will create and the skills needed to service them. These changes are predicted to happen faster than before, with more significant changes to our lives.7
5.13. MIT Media Labs estimates that
Eighty percent of the systems, processes, services and products that today’s five year olds will experience and use as adults have not yet been thought of.8
5.14. Robert Fogel, co-winner of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, believes that there is “inadequate attention to the accelerating rate of technological change”.9 He refers to the synergy between technological and physiological improvements particularly over the past century (such as medical advances that increase longevity) as a “technophysio evolution”. He sees this evolution as relevant to
forecasting likely trends over the next century or so in longevity, the age of onset of chronic diseases, body size, and the efficiency and durability of vital organ systems. It also has a bearing on such pressing issues of public policy as the growth in population, in pension costs, and in health-care costs.10
5.15. So any future scenario must have a disclaimer, for failing to predict the “disconnects”, the inevitable jumps in technology, medicine, and inventions that dramatically change our society and economy.
5.16. There are some reasonable statistical expectations for a future Auckland. In just over 50 years the population of Auckland is expected to be nearly 2.1 million people, depending on rates of fertility, mortality, and migration.11 Up to 50% of the country’s population may live in the Auckland region, although migration out of Auckland to other parts of the country is expected to increase.12
5.17. The world population has more than doubled since 1950, and is set to increase by another 40% by 2050.13 Some commentators believe that as the world population increases, and issues such as water and food shortages become more intense, there will be an increasing pressure for New Zealand to accept migrants, especially from countries such as India and China,14 and even possibly, Australia, which are all predicted to suffer from water shortages.15 The Millennium Project expects that environmental refugees throughout the world will number 200 million by 2050.16 In that scenario, it seems likely New Zealand will accept some environmental refugees from the Pacific.
5.18. The cultural face of Auckland is expected to be even more diverse, with increasing numbers of people arriving from the Middle East, Africa, and South America.17 The trend for certain suburbs to become increasingly identified with different cultures, as people live in communities of fellow nationals, is expected to intensify: South Auckland will be strongly Polynesian; the North Shore will be strongly Asian.18 The population will age as the population bulge of baby boomers reaches retirement. This changing social face of Auckland, with increasing numbers of immigrants, is expected to make it more conservative.19 As the Commission elaborates in a number of later chapters, welcoming and integrating the large numbers of immigrants who arrive into the region is critical for social cohesion and economic development.
5.19. Treaty settlements, and the subsequent investment and financial management of these resources, over the past 20 years have provided Māori authorities with significant economic power.20 By 2060, iwi organisations are expected to be a major player in education, health and business in the region. An increasing number of Māori will be middle-class.
5.20. Some of New Zealand’s highly qualified expatriate community may return from overseas as the combination of increased population growth, pollution, and crime creates pressure on infrastructure systems and societies in most developed countries.
5.21. The continued population growth has inevitable consequences in terms of housing and infrastructure needs for the Auckland region. The city will undoubtedly have a denser population, with more and higher apartment blocks, as well as more terraced and attached houses. Housing stock is predicted to double over the next 50 years.21 Houses and property sections will be smaller, and it is predicted that more people will live on their own (as the population ages and families break down into smaller and more separate units). The inner city will become more gentrified and more expensive, as population pressure increases. The urban densification also means that rural land becomes more valuable. Denser housing will cluster around transport nodes and corridors, to take advantage of transport networks, and to keep the urban area compact. Town planning could help develop these neighbourhoods into vibrant villages.
5.22. The ongoing development of better transport links to neighbouring cities such as Whangarei, Hamilton, Tauranga, and Taupo will allow more people to commute longer distances into Auckland for work. Several scenarios predict Hamilton will be seen as a satellite city for Auckland. It is expected that townships and villages close to the bush and beach along these transport routes will also be further developed to accommodate growth.22 One commentator believes that advances in shipping and communications means the economy of the Auckland region will eventually encompass the whole of the North Island.23
5.23. The present development of public transport networks of electric rail, buses, trams, and ferries will increase, and be used more frequently. Generally, cars will be smaller and will use different energy sources than at present. (Shell projects that one-third of passenger travel – excluding trains – will be electric by 2050, up from nearly zero today.)24 Shared transport, such as hire-and-drop-off cars and bikes are expected to become a normal part of the transport sector.
5.24. Ideally, many car routes around Auckland, such as along the waterfront, will be set underground or lifted high above ground level, allowing the city centre to become more walkable.
5.25. In the coming decades, it is predicted that more people will work from home for at least some of the week, and travel to offices mainly for meetings. Video and web conferencing are expected to be a normal part of daily work life. In 20 years’ time, it is predicted that computers will have the power of the human brain,25 and robots will be in widespread use.
5.26. Dramatic leaps in health technology will occur, with major breakthroughs expected in knowledge about genes, cells, and the behaviour of viruses.26 On the other hand, in the shorter term, Statistics New Zealand expects that by 2015 diabetes and cardiovascular disease will become major health costs.27
5.27. Ideally, the first 50 years of the 21st century will see a major investment in infrastructure development in the Auckland region, from water supply and drainage to transport routes and power grids, in order to support the growing population.
5.28. Energy and transport costs are predicted to rise. However, it is also expected that new technologies for micro-power generation (from solar and wind energy) and for local collection and processing of water will be developed and integrated into housing design.
5.29. In an ideal future, in the next few years Auckland will finally prioritise quality urban design as a leading feature of all city planning, and begin to change its urban landscape. After developing the waterfront and encouraging aesthetic design in its urban areas, in 50 years’ time Auckland could have a reputation as one of the most beautiful harbour cities in the world.
5.30. In this scenario, many of the worst examples of “rabbit hutch” apartment buildings in the centre of the city would ideally be demolished as they deteriorate, and be replaced by higher-quality, better designed buildings.
5.31. Accompanying the change in building aesthetics would be a focus on spatial design and liveability for the urban centres in the Auckland region. Pedestrian, bicycle, and public transport routes would be a priority of this design.
5.32.The Ministry for the Environment projects a rise in sea level by 40 cm nationally over the next few decades, as well as a gradual increase in temperature (0.9 °C by 2040) and a change in weather patterns, such as higher rainfall in the western parts of the country, and less in the eastern. For Auckland, the specific predictions include slightly lower mean average annual rainfalls, and an additional 25 days a year with temperatures above 25 °C. Flooding will become more frequent.28
5.33. Increasing population and industry growth will inevitably lead to a growing global demand for water and land. Globally, agriculture accounts for 70% of freshwater use, and to feed another 2 billion people by 2030 the volume needs to increase to 84%.29 Because growing 1 kilogram of beef requires an estimated 10,000 litres of water, a lot of New Zealand’s present farming is seen as unsustainable in the long term.30 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment programme has said that 60% of ecosystem services globally are exhausted or being used unsustainably and this is expected to drive change in farming methods.31 It is expected that in the near future there will be massive investment in genetically modified food, in aquaculture, and in growing meat from stem cells. This innovation in modified proteins and designer food, and a decline in the resource-expensive commodity protein exports, mean the face of New Zealand agriculture has to change. However, it is expected that there will remain a market for animal protein. Demand is projected to rise by 50% by 202032 which can be extrapolated at least to double by 2060.
5.34. The growth in global population and the worldwide demand for food means New Zealand’s agricultural sector will continue to be important to the country’s economy as long it responds with flexibility. The trend to consume more local and home-grown food is expected to continue.
5.35. The sheer growth in regional population alone will drive economic development as more people need housing, work, recreation, education, and entertainment. Economically, it is predicted there will be more emphasis in service industries, less in primary production, more in manufacturing.33 The shift to new technologies will require flexibility and adaptation in the sector. Economic possibilities could lie in biotechnology or in development of sophisticated products based on electronics, software, and engineering solutions. Carbon and biodiversity markets may generate economic value for New Zealand as it moves toward sustainability. The retail sector may change as the trend for long-life products and less consumerism grows over the coming decades.
5.36. As the cost of shipping goods becomes higher, regional trade arrangements are expected to increase, and it seems likely that primary produce exporters will concentrate on the Australasian domestic market. Niche industries and exporters will continue to focus on high-value boutique markets abroad.
5.37. New Zealand’s trade agreement with China provides opportunities in the coming decades. Economist Robert Fogel predicts that in 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or three times the output of the globe in 2000.34
5.38. Tourism is expected to change as people become aware of the carbon footprint impact of travel. They may come less often but stay for longer. There will probably be more visitors from the Asia-Pacific region, as those populations increase, as do cultural communities of Asian-Pacific migrants in Auckland.
5.39. Parks, reserves, and marine parks are expected to remain an outstanding feature of the region. Undeveloped areas such as the uninhabited islands of the Hauraki Gulf and the parks of the Waitakere Ranges will be increasingly prized.
5.40. Commentators are divided on whether economic development will result in a more unified or conflicted society.
5.41. A focus on education would ensure that the poverty gap between socio-economic groups in Auckland does not grow too wide. Ideally, the region’s government will work to weaken the link between disadvantage and antisocial behaviour such as violence and addiction.
5.42. Ubiquitous computing and online systems for decision making have the potential to make democracy far more participatory, both nationally and locally. The beginnings of this can be seen in cities such as Seattle where their website encourages email contact with councillors, provides tips for making e-requests, has council blogs and online public records disclosure.35 In the United States, an interactive internet system called the “Citizens’ Briefing Book” was set up for 12 months by the 2008 transition team for the new Democratic administration. American citizens were urged to
log onto Change.gov and give us your idea. It can be about energy, healthcare, or reduction of our dependence on foreign oil. You decide what is important to you. Other citizens will then be able to read your ideas and make comments and suggestions.36
5.43. In a similar way, monthly internet referenda could involve residents in key decisions about their city and region. The Millennium Project expects that there will be a global move to “ubiquitous computing with collective intelligence for just-in-time knowledge to inform decisions”.37 Landcare Research sees a future move to participatory and devolved democracy, which is complicated but nonetheless productive.38
5.44. The Commission acknowledges that notwithstanding any forecasting or scenario writing, the exact future of Auckland cannot be predicted. However, two things that seem reasonably certain are that increasing population will create further pressure on resources and infrastructure, and that developments in future technology will change how we work, live, communicate, and move around the region.
5.45. Recommendations on changes necessary to accommodate future growth are detailed in other chapters. Concepts embodied in them include
This is a selective list. There are many permutations on a future scenario, so the Commission has restricted its recommendations to areas where there is wide agreement amongst commentators.
5.46. The Commission has also considered what sort of governance arrangements might be required to respond effectively to the changes ahead. The principles that have guided it in recommending governance arrangements are future-focused. (These are discussed in Chapter 12, “Guiding Principles for Shaping Auckland Governance”).
5.47. The principles centre on first, the need for common identity and purpose – a governance structure that is able to coordinate a number of key functions region-wide, while allowing services to be delivered locally. Second, they emphasise the importance of effectiveness of governance structures and their ability to deliver maximum value. Third, the principles recognise the need for transparency and accountability in governance arrangements, including clear communication. Finally, the Commission has identified responsiveness as a core characteristic – the ability to be nimble in responding to altered situations, as Auckland will undoubtedly be subject to numerous changes over the next 100 years, which can barely be predicted now. It is with all this in mind that the Commission has developed its recommendations about structures of government for the region.
5.48. It is up to Auckland to ensure it utilises the potential that technology and a changing world offer. It is the Commission’s hope that Auckland chooses not to “muddle along” but rather to grasp the nettle of opportunity, and make decisions with vision and bold intent.
1. Examples include the ARC’s Auckland Regional Growth Strategy: 2050; the North Shore City Council’s City Blueprint (20 years) and Asset Management Plans (20 years); the ARC/Auckland City Council’s Auckland Waterfront Vision 2040; and the Franklin District Council’s District Growth Strategy report (50 years).
2. McGuinness, Wendy, “Weak Signals and Wild Cards”, Think Piece, Issue 4, August 2008, p. 1; presented at the 7X7 Ideas Forum, 26 August 2008.
3. Rod Oram, “Auckland 2060”, in Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, Auckland, 2009, pp. 553–592.
4. Wendy McGuinness comments in her essay “Weak Signals and Wild Cards” (Think Piece, Issue 4, August 2008) that “New Zealand has attempted to progress a national strategy many times in the past – such as the Knowledge Wave, the Sustainable Development Plan of Action and Michael J. Porter’s book Upgrading New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage – but we have not succeeded – and I think it is timely to ask why. My view is that we have not defined ‘all the problems’ in such a way as to understand the interconnections and opportunities; nor have we engaged all the people of New Zealand. It’s like we have formulated our solutions before exploring the questions.”
5. “Scenarios for Local Government to 2010”, Department of Internal Affairs, November 1998.
6. There was no census category for Asians, but the Chinese proportion of the population was 0.4%. Department of Statistics, Population Census 1961, Volume 7: Race, 1963, p. 8
7. Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Theodore, 2007 State of the Future, American Council for the United Nations University, Washington, 2007, executive summary (available at www.millennium-project.org, accessed February 2009).
8. MIT Media Labs, USA, quoted in “Scenarios for Local Government to 2010”, Department of Internal Affairs.
9. Fogel, Robert, “Catching Up with the Economy”, presidential address to the American Economic Association, January 4, 1999, New York, pp. 1–2 (available at www.csub.edu/~dberri/FogelAER1999.pdf, accessed February 2009; originally in American Economic Review, Vol. 89(1), pp. 1–21).
10. Ibid., p. 2.
11. McDermott, Philip, “Auckland’s Population”, in Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, pp. 39–66 (p. 45), Table 1, based on population forecasting for the Auckland Sustainability Framework.
12. Ibid., p 48.
13. Shell, Shell energy scenarios to 2050, Shell International, The Hague, 2008, p. 9 (available at www.shell.com, accessed February 2009).
14. ARC, “Forces Shaping the 21st Century: Climate Change/Natural Hazards”, 2006.
15. “Water Shortage endangers Australia’s cities”, China View News, 15 August 2007 (available at www.chinaview.cn, accessed February 2009). Compounding this problem is the expected increase in temperatures in Australia. See “Hot enough? Get used to it, say weather watchers”, New Zealand Herald, 5 February 2009 (available at www.nzherald.co.nz, accessed February 2009).
16. Glenn and Gordon, 2007 State of the Future, p. 8.
17. In 2006 a new ethnic category was introduced into the census: MELAA, Middle Eastern/Latin American/African. Of the 34,700 people who identified in that category, more than half live in the Auckland region.
18. Statistics New Zealand projects that the Asian population in Auckland will double between 2001 and 2016; the European population is projected to increase by 37% and 26% respectively in Rodney and Franklin Districts, and the Pacific population will grow by 24% in Auckland City and 66% in Waitakere City. Already there are settlement patterns among Asians, which are described in McDermott, “Auckland’s population”, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, p. 54.
19. The ARC postulated that Auckland could be the recipient of “aggressive migration” from Asia and the Pacific because of climate change, worsening food shortages, poor economic conditions, and conflicts over resources (“Forces Shaping the 21st Century: Climate Change/Natural Hazards”, 2006, p. 2-4). Other commentators note that migration from countries such as Samoa, the Philippines, Vietnam, and so on, is seen as one factor for the rise in Catholicism in New Zealand. Asian migrants also increase the number of Buddhists, Hindus, and Muslims. Commentators suggest that religious people tend to have more conservative beliefs.
20. A New Zealand Herald article in January 2009 outlined iwi plans for investing in and developing infrastructure such as toll roads, airports, and utilities (such as power stations) as part of a public-private partnership (www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10554056, accessed February 2009).
21. Interview with Brian Easton, 12 December 2008.
22. Rod Oram, “Auckland 2060”, in Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, p. 579.
23. Interview with Brian Easton, 12 December 2008.
24. Shell, Shell energy scenarios to 2050, p. 31.
25. Glenn and Gordon, 2007 State of the Future, p. 7.
26. Glenn, Jerome C, Gordon, Theodore and Florescu, Elizabeth, 2008 State of the Future, Millennium Project/World Federation of United Nations Associations, Washington, 2008, executive summary, p. 5 (available at www.millennium-project.org, accessed February 2009).
27. Cited by Oram, “Auckland 2060”, in Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, p. 561.
28. Ministry for the Environment, Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New Zealand, 2nd edition, Wellington, May 2008 (available at www.mfe.govt.nz, accessed Febraury 2009).
29. Black, Richard, “Water – another global crisis”, BBC News, 2 February 2009; and “FAO urges action to cope with increasing water scarcity”, FAO Newsroom, 22 March 2007.
30. Oram, “Auckland 2060”, citing Landcare Research studies, in Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, p. 564.
31. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, Island Press, Washington, 2005, p. 1.
32. Millennium Project, “Global Challenges Facing Humanity: 3. Population and resources” (www.millennium-project.org/millennium/Global_Challenges/chall-03.html, accessd February 2009).
33. Landcare Research, Four Future Scenarios for New Zealand, 2nd edn, 2007.
34. Robert Fogel, quoted in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Fogel (accessed on 10 February 2008).
35. See www.cityofseattle.net.
36. The website citizensbriefingbook.change.gov, which wrapped up after President Obama’s inauguration in January 2009, described how the system worked: “Users can easily post their ideas in a variety of categories, such as Economy, Education, Energy and Environment, Healthcare, and Homeland Security. In addition, users can read ideas from other citizens and promote the ones they like best. The best ideas will bubble to the top of the list as more community members participate and promote what is important to them. The top ideas will be presented directly to President-Elect Obama and his cabinet following the inauguration in the form of a briefing book entitled The Citizen’s Briefing Book.” (accessed December 2008)
37. Glenn, Gordon and Florescu, 2008 State of the Future, p. 2.
38. Oram, “Auckland 2060”, citing Landcare Research studies, in Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, Report, Volume 4: Research Papers, p. 562.
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